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At the lowest level, with the broadest base, comprising roughly 40 million users. Broadly, these 70 million users can be broken down into three categories, assuming it’s a pyramid. Perhaps you may say that 70 million users is still a lot. According to a source I spoke to, that’s also more or less the number of unique customers who have bought a product at least once last year on the biggest horizontal e-commerce platforms in India-Amazon or Flipkart.Įssentially, if you want to make money online in India, you’ll need to take it from these 70 million users. Maybe it’s grown since then to, say, 70 million users, but that’s more or less where the outer limit is today. There are multiple reports from a couple of years back which validate this 50 million number as well. A great proxy is the number of postpaid mobile users in India, which is around 50 million, who form the bulk of this base. There are empirical ways to validate this. That’s about the population of the United Kingdom. Well, if you really stretch it, it’s about 70 million users (realistically, it’s closer to 40-50 million, but more on this later). These are the users who pay for stuff online. This is the customer base of most Indian internet companies. These are the users who have access to the internet through a smartphone, use mobile apps, have some disposable income, and have bought something online at least once a year.
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Also those who use it just as a free media consumption device, like watching videos on TikTok or YouTube.Īfter all of this, you’ll end up with an estimate of the number of annual active customers (AAC) in India. Then we remove the ones who have used their phones just to do digital transactions like, say, transfer money to each other or recharge their mobile plan. Then users who technically have a smartphone, but it’s a smartphone in name only and can’t do much. But then that includes feature phone users, who can’t run most apps anyway. Which brings it down to around 400 million. So you say, well, then, it’s the number of people who have mobile data. But not all of them have access to the internet. So you may say, well, it’s the number of Indians with a mobile connection in India, which is a little less than a billion. If you are an internet company in India and a VC asks you what your addressable market size is, you may be tempted to say that it’s 1.4 billion.īut that’s the population of India, he might counter. Now, this growth has essentially flatlined.īut if the number of customers has mostly stayed the same, then why are we seeing a surge in funding for these companies? And why are some companies going public? Until now, this market was growing rapidly. This customer base represents the total addressable market for most Indian internet companies. The number of active internet customers in India has stopped growing. And along with that, we’ll also see why India’s internet sector, which boomed for over a decade with several companies going from smaller companies to unicorns and from unicorns to decacorns, will likely never see a global pure play 100 billion dollar internet company emerge anytime soon. It’s something many people have noticed, but are somewhat uncomfortable talking about openly.Īnd today, I’ll use it to explain why all of these companies are suddenly getting funded or going public. It’s a secret that’s being whispered among some VCs, founders, and market researchers in India. It’s India’s moment.Īll of this is true to varying degrees, but the actual reason is quite different. Others may argue that this was inevitable, and represents the coming-of-age of internet companies, many of whom witnessed growth during the pandemic or in the case of Zomato, Flipkart, Paytm, have been operating thanks to venture capital for nearly a decade. There’s a lot of liquidity in the private and public markets right now-which is true.
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You may ask, why is this happening right now? Yes, it’s a wonderful time if you are a reasonably successful internet company in India. And there are reports of companies like Paytm *, Delhivery, and Flipkart who are going down this path too.
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For far too long, CEOs of Indian internet companies have made promises and teased the idea of wanting to do an Initial Public Offering (IPO), and finally, it looks like some of them have bitten the bullet. Second, if you are an internet company that’s been around for a while, there’s an even more attractive option-going public. In fact, the total funding raised by startups in India this year has exceeded the previous year by a billion dollars. Companies are raising seed rounds of $40 million. It looks like practically everyone is getting funding in India. It appears to be a wonderful time if you are a reasonably successful internet company in India.įirst, there are more unicorns being created than anytime in the recent past.